LTA to adjust COE quota calculation again to reduce supply volatility

[BanCoe]

On 1/20/2023 at 3:47 PM, Voodooman said:

Err... COE has been around for more than 30 years and we have seen how many feast and famine cycle? 

Don't put too much faith in LTA fixing this crazy phenomenon. 

Wait lah ……. Got Pioneer Gen , Merdeka Gen Kads …… now wait for COE Gen Kad …… sure got commemorative special bumper crop issue 🤣🤣🤣

[Mkl22]

11 hours ago, Comage said:

Don't need to put much rocket science into this theory of "bump in renewals" - hear me out:

It's simply because loans for COE renewals can be taken from any car dealer who offers 0% downpayment and 10year loans.

Someone told me AD can't do such shit - so buyers are "forced" to go by MAS rules.

So, many people renew to keep their "car ownership" dreams alive - and to circumvent the MAS rules.

Coincidentally, many have started to own a car with the "help" of the PHV label - this is the reason why we see:

1) Lesser PHVs available for booking - everyone's complaining about lack of cars when they try to book one. Because everyone's owning it as a "supplement" to their lifestyle and not serious full-time drivers plying the road for passengers

2) Odd-model PHvs appearing, e.g. hatchbacks like Jazz, Swift, Yaris, even Note also got PHVs appearing on the road. And then on the other spectrum, models that are not even fuel-economical like VW Touran/Tiguans, and E200s or 5ers (which you can tell are not not hotel nor hospital fleet vehicles as the car dashboard is cluttered with personal items and sometimes there's even a child seat behind).

---

That is why I suggested those 2 points that I said before to clamp down hard on people buying cars by overleveraging their finances:

 

But why you complaining. I’m only complaining about the uneven supply. Too drastic of the difference between the high and lows of the the quota. 
Coe price is what it is. Who doesn’t want to pay less. The market has moved on from the 10-20k 2005-2010. Everyone has become richer to spend. Loan those days were even looser than now. 

[inlinesix]

PHV is 11% of car population but almost 30% of new car registered is PHV.

Proportion of PHV has grown by less than 1% pts. Will this trend continue?

 

[Voodooman]

12 hours ago, Comage said:

Why "undeniable"? It should be the opposite... buying car with higher loan amounts... as per the trends that I have pointed out.

Didn't you realize more empty lots these days at HDB car parks, especially at night? Numbers of cars on the road are the same but the profile of car owners have shifted and it is not towards the marginal buyers but the rich and double income PMET families. These are not your marginal buyers who need to leverage up to afford a car. 

Anyway, private transport is increasing the domain of the rich in Singapore, that is undeniable. 

You think recent COE demand is driven by high loan and marginal buyers, I totally disagree. You are barking up the wrong tree. 

 

[Throttle2]

Adjust here

adjust there

f**k lah, i said before COE bidding in full cash by buyers only.   
 

lai lah.  

Buy car no loans allowed lah, wtf need loan dont buy lah, f**k off. 
 

especially any car above $200k no loans allowed.  Loan inly allowed for cars below $200k

lai lai lai

I

very fair one…muayhahaha
 

😃😄😎

Edited January 22, 2023 by Throttle2

[Comage]

4 hours ago, Voodooman said:

Didn't you realize more empty lots these days at HDB car parks, especially at night? Numbers of cars on the road are the same but the profile of car owners have shifted and it is not towards the marginal buyers but the rich and double income PMET families. These are not your marginal buyers who need to leverage up to afford a car. 

Anyway, private transport is increasing the domain of the rich in Singapore, that is undeniable. 

You think recent COE demand is driven by high loan and marginal buyers, I totally disagree. You are barking up the wrong tree. 

 

You have opened my eyes, Sir. 

Thank you for sharing your valuable opinions! 

[Voodooman]

1 hour ago, Comage said:

You have opened my eyes, Sir. 

Thank you for sharing your valuable opinions! 

Haha... Hope it is not a sarcastic remark but happy to agree to disagree. 

 

[Comage]

4 hours ago, Voodooman said:

Haha... Hope it is not a sarcastic remark but happy to agree to disagree. 

 

No , it's not sarcastic remark. Always good to slug it out with logical/rationale explanations.

Your viewpoints is really something from the other side - because otherwise there's really also no hard evidence or good explanation why the COE prices are spiraling out of control these days.

On some fronts the news reports income gaps widening, and then yet on the other hand we see news about debt defaulters...

Something just doesn't seem right these days.

[Comage]

13 hours ago, Mkl22 said:

But why you complaining. I’m only complaining about the uneven supply. Too drastic of the difference between the high and lows of the the quota. 
Coe price is what it is. Who doesn’t want to pay less. The market has moved on from the 10-20k 2005-2010. Everyone has become richer to spend. Loan those days were even looser than now. 

Sorry if I hijacked your thread when the discussion topic was on the macroeconomic point of COE supply...

I had mistakenly assumed your thread to be one bashing the COE system as a result of the spiraling COE prices.

[Voodooman]

28 minutes ago, Comage said:

No , it's not sarcastic remark. Always good to slug it out with logical/rationale explanations.

Your viewpoints is really something from the other side - because otherwise there's really also no hard evidence or good explanation why the COE prices are spiraling out of control these days.

On some fronts the news reports income gaps widening, and then yet on the other hand we see news about debt defaulters...

Something just doesn't seem right these days.

Didn't I mentioned earlier that it is more of a supply than demand issue?

Demand is growing but it is not driven by over leveraging. And PHV demand has always been there.  

You can't cut Cat A+B COE quota from 80-90k a year to 30k a year and expect COE premium to not go through the roof.  It happens everytime. 

Many of us studied LTA data and bought during 2018/2019, after > 30 years of COE regime, it is not rocket science and getting rather predictable.

[Ct3833]

On 1/21/2023 at 12:29 PM, Volvobrick said:

By 2026 maybe you will say gone are the days you pay only 112k for COE.... 

211k by then ? 

[Hosaybo]

Maybe.... Since Inflation is one of the buzz word right now on everyone's lips.👄

https://m.sgcarmart.com/articles/articleinfo.php?CT=e&AID=4102#:~:text=Taking 2021 as the baseline,%24460%2C000 balloons to %24672%2C000.

 

If we traced back to the early days of COE, it ever hit around 100k.... 100k back then was not like 100k today hor.........👀

Edited January 23, 2023 by Hosaybo

[Cheesey74]

15 hours ago, Comage said:

You have opened my eyes, Sir. 

Thank you for sharing your valuable opinions! 

@Voodooman is right, i have noticed both my hdb carparks empty lots increasing quite alot since last year coe spike start, i think those young high loan buyers also can't tahan such exorbitant car prices liao, even for renew coe cars, guess only the single yolo n double pmet couple plus rich retiree can still afford a car among the hdb crowd.

I go brisk walk frequently n whenever i walk by those ang mo chu, many got >1 car n most r relatively new model, car ownership is moving towards to be the toy of the rich, dun say car, just look at motorcycle coe @ 12k while most 2b transport bikes machine price like 6k or so nia, my msia colleagues laugh at us till teeth drop, so llst then do the right thing when the time come.

Moi strongly believe using $$$ to control car ownership is not the best way cos it skewed towards the rich but then others will argue sg is a meritocracy country so ish like who got money who win, yes that i agree but garment gotta find a way to let those who really need a car to have some form of leeway into owning 1 affordably, maybe those with >2 childs under 5 yrs old, or those single living with BOTH >70 aged old parents, just to quote some example.. Yeah i know garment not easy to balance such act but then again currynah we pay them so much n if such simple things also can't find a solution, like that better change/try a better player lah.

[inlinesix]

2 hours ago, Cheesey74 said:

@Voodooman is right, i have noticed both my hdb carparks empty lots increasing quite alot since last year coe spike start, i think those young high loan buyers also can't tahan such exorbitant car prices liao, even for renew coe cars, guess only the single yolo n double pmet couple plus rich retiree can still afford a car among the hdb crowd.

I go brisk walk frequently n whenever i walk by those ang mo chu, many got >1 car n most r relatively new model, car ownership is moving towards to be the toy of the rich, dun say car, just look at motorcycle coe @ 12k while most 2b transport bikes machine price like 6k or so nia, my msia colleagues laugh at us till teeth drop, so llst then do the right thing when the time come.

Moi strongly believe using $$$ to control car ownership is not the best way cos it skewed towards the rich but then others will argue sg is a meritocracy country so ish like who got money who win, yes that i agree but garment gotta find a way to let those who really need a car to have some form of leeway into owning 1 affordably, maybe those with >2 childs under 5 yrs old, or those single living with BOTH >70 aged old parents, just to quote some example.. Yeah i know garment not easy to balance such act but then again currynah we pay them so much n if such simple things also can't find a solution, like that better change/try a better player lah.

When you talk about meritocracy, it will be competency of each individual.

Unlike housing, car is considered “luxury”.

Otherwise, we will have a system like HDB for car.

Even Govt also no use

[pengu]

2 hours ago, Cheesey74 said:

@Voodooman is right, i have noticed both my hdb carparks empty lots increasing quite alot since last year coe spike start, i think those young high loan buyers also can't tahan such exorbitant car prices liao, even for renew coe cars, guess only the single yolo n double pmet couple plus rich retiree can still afford a car among the hdb crowd.

I go brisk walk frequently n whenever i walk by those ang mo chu, many got >1 car n most r relatively new model, car ownership is moving towards to be the toy of the rich, dun say car, just look at motorcycle coe @ 12k while most 2b transport bikes machine price like 6k or so nia, my msia colleagues laugh at us till teeth drop, so llst then do the right thing when the time come.

Moi strongly believe using $$$ to control car ownership is not the best way cos it skewed towards the rich but then others will argue sg is a meritocracy country so ish like who got money who win, yes that i agree but garment gotta find a way to let those who really need a car to have some form of leeway into owning 1 affordably, maybe those with >2 childs under 5 yrs old, or those single living with BOTH >70 aged old parents, just to quote some example.. Yeah i know garment not easy to balance such act but then again currynah we pay them so much n if such simple things also can't find a solution, like that better change/try a better player lah.

I think the best way is to leave the COE system untouched, but follow HDB method of giving rebates to the needy.

 

Maybe can give families with small kids a $50k COE rebate for Cat A cars. And that this car cannot be transferred and only deregistered if possible. This will help families which need car, and prevent them from profiting from it. 
 

But the Govt probably wouldn’t do it unfortunately. They are going down the path of car-lite and trying to convince everyone, including large families, that they can do without cars. And then they wonder why there’s falling birth rate lol

[Comage]

I had thought it was weird that recently we see an increasing number of toys rage incidents, ever since the pandemic times - is this the general behavior of the affluent? 

Strange indeed

 

[Meanmachine]

It s WAKE UP call, We can shout kelong also no use, Traffic congestion is the main problem to solve, thy have installed ERPs, suck our money, thy have added more highways and narrow down stream, plus created more lanes, still it does not solve much of traffic woes.

LTA can increase and decrease charges all thy want, still it cannot solved the main traffic snarl, so are the ICA borders custom checkpoints, the objectives is to ask Motorists to take MRT to work and I can tell you it will still create MRT jams like sardine.

[Meanmachine]

@Cheesey74 Can't find a better player, maybe a bedminton double may do the trick , here once a Transport minister is way too much loading on his bird brain to solve