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Motor Mouth: COE price surge goes beyond supply and demand Christopher Tan Senior Transport Correspondent PUBLISHED FEB 11, 2022, 2:00 PM SGT ... The COE prices for cars are roughly double what they were before the pandemic. The shrinking supply of certificates has often been cited as the reason for the escalating premiums. While that is logical, it does not tell the whole story. In the last two years, it appears there is another factor turbocharging the surge in premiums - discretionary purchases. These include people trading in their current cars for new ones earlier than usual as well as those adding to their stable of vehicles. If you look at the supply and price trends from 2020, you will see price increases far outpacing the reduction in supply. On average, the Category A quota has shrunk by 21.4 per cent from 2020 to 2021, but the premium has gone up by 34 per cent. The disparity is more stark for bigger cars. On average, the supply of Category B and Open certificates has fallen by 24.2 per cent in the same period, but the average premium has soared by 63 per cent. The same can be seen in Category D (motorcycles), where a 9.7 per cent cut in supply has resulted in a 35 per cent rise in average premium. In the case of Category A, industry players say a rush by private-hire operators to replace ageing cars - especially those older than 10 years - to meet stricter regulatory requirements is a contributing factor. ... If the trend seen in the last two years persists this year, car and bike prices will reach unthinkable levels. And that will trickle down to consumers who do not drive or ride - in the form of higher fares and delivery charges. https://www.straitstimes.com/life/motoring/motor-mouth-coe-price-surge-goes-beyond-supply-and-demand

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/fewer-coes-available-august-to-october-2019-quota-11731114 SINGAPORE: The Certificate of Entitlement (COE) quota for August to October will fall by 17.7 per cent as compared to the previous quarter. The COE quota for August to October will be 20,850, down from the 25,347 COEs from May to July, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) announced in a news release on Thursday (Jul 18). There will be a decrease in the number of COEs issued for every category. Category A, which is for cars up to 1,600cc and maximum power output not exceeding 97kW, will have a quota of 6,338 COEs, 25.8 per cent fewer than the previous quarter's 8,546. The average monthly quota is 2,112. Category B, which is for cars above 1,600cc or maximum power output above 97kW, will have a quota of 6,251, which is lower than the preceding quarter's 6,834. This works out to an average monthly quota of 2,083. Goods vehicles and buses in Category C will have a quota of 1,699, with an average monthly quota of 566. In Category D, which is for motorcycles, the COE quota is 4,433, down from last quarter's quota of 5,383. The average monthly quota for this quarter is 1,477. Open category vehicles will have a quota of 2,129, with an average monthly quota of 709. Source: CNA/aa(aj)

I shall share these after LTA released the monthly data every month (usually it's on the 12th or the next working day). Here is my 1st sharing basing on LTA's jz released data for Oct 2014. 1) Both the number of dereg for Cat A and Cat B went up 11% and 9%, respectively. Cat A dereg for Oct is doubled of Jan's!!

From my past experience, I thought these two terms above were the same as QP stands for Quota Premium. Calculating the COE rebate should be safe by using any of them. Until recently I came across to a vehicle, where its value of QP Paid is lower than its Quota Premium. Strangely, the COE rebate of this car was calculated base on the Quota Premium (i.e. the higher of the 2 values) instead. I am puzzled. Anyone knows what’s the difference between the 2 values? Thanks in advance.

Singapore - There were reasons to cheer for those looking to buy a 1,600cc car or a motorcycle, as the Certificates of Entitlement (COE) supply for the August to January period was released yesterday. The monthly quota of COEs in these categories will be increased for the six-month period: There will be 1,096 COEs each month in the small car category, or 76 more per month compared with the previous six-month period. For motorcycles, there will be 775 COEs each month, or 124 more COEs each month. However, buyers of larger cars, goods vehicles and buses are likely to face stiffer competition over the next six months, due to a fall in the COE supply. There will be 706 COEs for cars larger than 1,600cc, 141 fewer than the previous allocated quota. The goods vehicle and buses category will see 68 fewer COEs over the next six months. Overall, COE supply for the next six months remained relatively stable with 3,721 COEs available each month. The COE quota comprises three components: Provision for 1.5 per cent vehicle growth based on the vehicle population as at end December last year; replacement COEs for vehicles deregistered between January and June this year, and adjustment for over-projections of vehicle de-registrations between 2008 and 2009. Motor dealers Today spoke to said they do not expect COE prices to cool off anytime soon. Mr Ron Lim, general manager for Nissan agent Tan Chong Motor, noted that the 7-per-cent increase in the smaller car category is "marginal" compared with the "drastic" 16-per-cent fall seen in the larger car category. "We expect the continental car dealers to enter the smaller cars category and add pressure to the bidding," Mr Lim said. For the larger cars, Singapore Vehicle Traders' Association's honorary secretary Raymond Tang noted that the demand for luxury continental brands is still strong and expects premiums to breach the S$70,000 mark in next week's bidding. "COE prices will keep going up as there aren't enough COEs to go around," Mr Tang said. The next COE quota announcement - for the COE bidding period from February to July next year - will be made in January. The Land Transport Authority said the 1.5 per cent vehicle growth rate, which is valid for three years from 2009 to this year, is under review. It will announce the growth rate from next year once the review is completed. source http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/EDC11...rs,-motorcycles

The details of the July 2017 first open bidding exercise for Certificates of Entitlement (COEs) are as follows: Tender opens: Monday, 3 July 2017, 12 noon Tender closes: Wednesday, 5 July 2017, 4.00 pm Tender results: Wednesday, 5 July 2017 (Available on the www.onemotoring.com.sg website) The total quota available for this tender is 5,295* for the following vehicle categories: NON-TRANSFERABLE CATEGORIES: Category A: Cars (up to 1600cc & 97kW (130bhp)) => 1,900* Category B: Cars (above 1600cc or 97kW (130bhp)) => 1,320* Category D: Motorcycles => 460* TRANSFERABLE CATEGORIES: Category C: Goods Vehicles and Buses => 1,085* Category E: Open Category => 530* * Estimated figures since LTA no longer provide the actual no. of COE available for each category prior to start of the bidding exercise.

The Government's proposals to inject more fairness into the vehicle quota system have whipped up a vigorous debate and initial signs point to more people supporting, rather than opposing, the suggested moves. Motor traders, transport experts and online readers of The Straits Times are largely in favour of the proposal to impose a surcharge on motorists who buy more than one car. Announced by Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew on Thursday, the idea was cheered by many yesterday. Said the president of the Motor Traders Association, Mr Cheah Kim Teck: "In a society like ours, there's just no need for anyone to own more than one car." Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/...ta-system-20130

Hi everyone, With the expected increase in COE quota to be released this week, would like to get advise whether to wait out till Nov, or should go ahead and buy in next bidding in Oct (after announcement of new quota)? Any difference it would make? Thanks.

Just curious....

Among the many letters The Straits Times received in recent months from folks who called for changes to the COE (certificate of entitlement) system, a few stood out – their writers suggested that the Government allocate COEs according to bidders’ needs. These readers wrote that people with jobs that require lots of commuting, or those with young children or taking care of aged parents, should be given priority access to cars. The suggestion is easy to dismiss as it appears ridiculous, impossibly cumbersome to apply and administer, and runs smack against the purity of the current capitalistic system – where the price mechanism decides who gets a COE. The COE system, which turns 23 this year, has proven largely effective in controlling Singapore’s vehicle population growth, even if the targeted rate of growth has not quite been met consistently. It is a clean, cold and calculated system that lets economics run its course. Supply, demand, competitive auction, transparency – ingredients which ensure that those who are most willing and most able to pay will get a new car. Why muddy it with needs-based components? Well, it is interesting to note that the late Dr Goh Keng Swee, one of Singapore’s greatest policy-makers, mooted such an idea back in the early 1970s. In his book The Practice of Economic Growth (1977), a collection of speeches he made, Dr Goh touched on controlling Singapore’s vehicle population through a quota system. In it, he argued that such a quota system, where bidders compete for the right to own a car, could be the way forward (he spoke about it some 20 years before the COE system was implemented). But he also suggested that the Government set aside some permits for certain deserving professions, such as teachers and policemen. He also mentioned administrative officers in the civil service. Dr Goh did not articulate the rationale for this, but it is perhaps reasonable to assume that he felt certain people whose services are valuable to society, but who may not be able to compete with the wealthy for the right to own a car, should receive some form of dispensation. Of course, the professions he cited are much better-paying today, and most people in those jobs are quite capable of buying a car themselves. But the thinking behind Dr Goh’s suggestion was one grounded in some form of social equity. When the COE system was implemented in 1990, it featured a fairly strong element of social equity. There were many more car categories than today, so that bidders in lower income brackets are shielded somewhat from those who are better off. But the four car categories were merged into two in 2000. The move resulted in the demise of (cheaper) small cars. There was an outcry, but the authorities did not relent. Still, there was some fairness in the revised format, as big-car buyers do not compete with the rest for certificates. That lasted a few years. Today, COE Category A (for cars up to 1600cc) has been “infi ltrated” by luxury makes with 1.6-litre models. This has caused premiums in the category to spiral northward. Recently, they crossed the$90,000 mark to end not far from the Category B (cars above 1600cc) price. Despite repeated calls for a review of the system, nothing has been done to return some equity into it. It’s a shame, really, because there are various ways to modify the process so that bidders who aren’t that rich can have a fair shot at acquiring a new car. One way would be to revert to the four categories. Another would be to segregate vehicles according to their open market value (OMV) instead of engine displacement. For the latter, perhaps cars with OMVs of up to $25,000 can reside in Cat A, while the rest can go into Cat B. Whatever form the modification takes, the final objective of the COE system remains unaffected: it will still control the rate of vehicle population growth. The difference would nevertheless be tremendous to consumers at large. A review will also go to show that the Government is one that rules not only with its head, but also with its heart. And if we were to apply the late Dr Goh’s principle of rewarding certain groups of people by granting them easier access to a car, perhaps we could consider married couples with more than two children. That will certainly help to solve Singapore’s dismal birth rate. This article was written by Christopher Tan, consulting editor for Torque.

http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/coe-q...onths-set-20825

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/sin...1245933/1/.html Seems about the same as last round - can anybody update how many were available in the last bidding? 410 COEs for Cat A (small cars), 363 for Cat B (big cars) 462 for Cat D (motorcycles). Cat E (open), 256 COEs will be available, while Cat C (goods vehicles and buses) will have 193 COEs.

Yesterday evening my friend and I reached the car park at around 8pm. I tore a 50 cents coupon starting at 8.10pm while my friend started at 8.05pm then went for dinner. We both overshot our parking coupon period when we returned at 9 plus but only I got a summon for $6! My friend's car is just a few lots away from mine and I glance through the entire car park it seems like I'm the only one to get fined... :( Can I complain and make sure my friend get summon too? haha PS: It's my own fault for not displaying enough coupon and very willing to pay for the fine! Just wondering why I kena fine only

The Certificate of Entitlement (COE) quota for the period August 2012 to January 2013 will be 19,351. Details of the quota for each vehicle category are in Annex A. Bidding under this quota will start with the August 2012 First Open Bidding Exercise.

there is another thread on this. pls go to that thread

In today's ST: COE prices set to soar even higher. Ho say liao, for those who already bought new car, or renewed COE car. Others LLST till next year and continue to hope. Worst case: 43% drop in overall COE supply. Worst case: 65% shrinkage in Cat A COE supply. Cat A COE projected to hit high $80,000 later this year. Outcome: - more Mercedes Benz and BMWs sold - continue to top charts - C180K top Cat A seller, death of all other Cat A car sales - rich will continue to upgrade and/or buy even more Cat B/E cars Orbi good!

Next release of info is one month away. Here's the estimated monthly quota based on calculations from available data. Cat A: 1210 (up 10%) Cat B: 670 (down 5%) Cat C: 320 (down 34%) Cat D: 800 (up 3%) Cat E: 610 (down 8%) Let's wait and see how accurate is my prediction :)

Here's my calculation based on available data. Cat A: 1097 (Up 8%) Cat B: 706 (Down 17%) Cat C: 483 (Down 12%) Cat D: 775 (Up 19%) Cat E: 660 (no change)

I happened to read the letters / articles in Straits times from last Thursday through Sunday and I found out that some readers complain that low COE Qualifying Price for last few years leading to flooding of cars on the roads. Surprisingly some of our MCF friends also echo the same. There is no relation between flooding and COE QP as the quota is always fixed for any bidding. If economy is good and demand is more, the COEs are bidded and purchased at a higher price. This happened in mid nighties too (even though the COE quota was much higher than now) Am I missing any point on this?

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/motor/...,392732,00.html? COE premiums for big cars may rise more The deregistration trend of April fails to continue into May, at least for Cat A cars By SAMUEL EE THE deregistration trend means the doomsday scenario for the new COE quota may not pan out after all and there could even be a marginal increase for small cars, which means stable premiums. But big-car buyers should be prepared to pay more for a certificate of entitlement (COE). Pre-owned car deals: Sales of second-hand cars have not risen as much as expected. In May, the number of vehicles transferred saw a sharp drop of about 1,000 units for cars - from 4,746 in April to 3,749 last month In April, the number of deregistered vehicles in Category A (for cars below 1,600cc) and Category B (cars above 1,600cc) plunged into rare three-figure territory. This sparked fears that the next COE quota from August 2010 to January 2011 will shrink by unprecedented levels. This is because the amount of COEs released will now be determined largely by the number of vehicles deregistered in the preceding six months, in this case from January to June 2010. But the deregistration downtrend did not continue into May, at least for cars below 1,600cc, which rebounded into four-figure territory - 1,006 to be precise, according to Land Transport Authority figures. If this trend stays the same for June, then Cat A may see a one per cent increase in its monthly quota to 1,407 COEs from August onwards (based on rough assumptions of COE allocation). However, Cat B deregistrations in May stayed low and largely unchanged at 733, so if this persists, the new monthly Cat B quota could shrink by 15 per cent to 936. The open category - Cat E - which is often used to register big cars, could also contract by 5 per cent to 682. But Cat C - commercial vehicles - could rise by 13 per cent to 399 due to slightly higher deregistrations, while Cat D - for motorcycles - could dip just one per cent to 665. So the good news is that Cat A and Cat C premiums should remain stable, benefiting buyers of bread-and-butter models, as well as business owners. But the twin reductions in Cat B and Cat E allocation could cause big car premiums to rise. If the premium increases are sharp, they could have the effect of slowing down the recent strong growth in luxury car sales. Another phenomenon that has not panned out is the forecast spike in sales of second-hand cars. When COE premiums began rising in late March, the used-car industry prepared itself for a revival in fortunes. Sales of such pre-owned cars have since risen, but not by as much as expected. In fact, in May the number of vehicles transferred saw a sharp drop of about 1,000 units for cars - from 4,746 cars in April to 3,749 in May.

prices going to get higher. according to the report, coe for cat A may hit 60k by the middle of next year. want to buy, better buy now.

We all know the quota is being cut, and will Be the lowest in 2011 n 2012. We also know that the SE are being retrenched, and existing ones are nervous to perform their best. So does this mean that car buyers can finally be king? Like asking for more freebies. Like asking for discounts and special deals, etc. The time has come for car buyers to show who is boss!!! Good luck to future car buyers!

Is it merely a hearsay or its a fact? Please kindly share your views on it as that will definately help alot of potential car buyers including me on whether is it a suitable time to buy a car now. Thanks.

Just take a look at the link below, looks like there will be another significant drop of quota from Aug 2010. The is a sharp drop from of Cat A & B deregistration on Apr. http://www.lta.gov.sg/corp_info/doc/M05-De...0by%20Quota.pdf

Will LTA cut COE quota again in July 2010? Saw some post talking about this. What is the basis or is this red herring? Does LTA normally reviews the COE Quota in July each year? What is the chance of this happening?